Table of contents:
Introduction.
Deconstructing the Trump administration’s economic doctrine.
The lack of credibility doctrine.
The architech.
The tariff-devaluation.
Unconventional financing and the weaponization of crypto.
The fiscal package.
Mechanism 1: The GENIUS act and the crypto-financing loop.
Mechanism 2: Revaluation of U.S. gold reserves.
The central bank gambit.
The goal is absolute control.
Politically driven monetary policy
Portfolio allocation.
Identifying the catalysts for the Great Fall.
Introduction
Today’s report brings hot information that has been passed to me and that is linked to the second Trump administration, which will culminate in an extraordinary boom in risk assets in 2026. Therefore, several of the previous theses could be invalidated due to this.
The central thesis posits that a confluence of unorthodox, yet internally consistent, policies is being engineered to deliberately devalue the U.S. dollar and inject unprecedented levels of liquidity into the financial system. This period of exceptional opportunity, described in foundational analysis as an epic year, will be followed by a period of extreme, systemic danger, necessitating a dynamic, two-phase investment strategy.
The anticipated boom rests on three core pillars:
First is the effective subordination of the Federal Reserve, transforming it from an independent monetary authority into an entity that accommodates a politically driven agenda of suppressed interest rates.
Second is the implementation of massive fiscal stimulus, financed not through conventional taxation but through innovative and unconventional mechanisms, most notably the leveraging of the burgeoning cryptocurrency ecosystem via the recently enacted Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act.
The third pillar is a strategic, calculated weakening of the U.S. dollar, achieved through a doctrine of intentional unpredictability, designed to bolster domestic manufacturing and export competitiveness.
Based on this analysis, the primary investment recommendation is a strategic overweight allocation to U.S. equities (particularly technology and industrials), cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum), and gold. This positioning should be initiated in late 2025 and maintained through 2026. Concurrently, an underweight, or outright short, position on the U.S. dollar against the Euro is advised to capitalize on the engineered currency devaluation.
To understand the bigger picture I recommend you to check this pdf:
However, this report issues a severe warning: the artificial boom is inherently unstable. The very mechanism that fuels it—a massive structural shift in government financing toward short-term Treasury debt—creates a critical vulnerability. This analysis has identified three major tail risks projected to converge in the 2028-2029 timeframe. These are: a sovereign debt refinancing crisis triggered by a sudden inflation spike; a systemic shock originating from the opaque and highly leveraged shadow banking sector; and a potent exogenous inflationary catalyst, such as global water scarcity, which could act as the final trigger.
Therefore, investors must adopt a two-phase strategic approach. The first phase requires aggressive participation in the 2026 liquidity-driven rally. The second phase demands a decisive and rapid pivot to a defensive, capital-preservation posture upon the emergence of specific, quantifiable leading indicators of systemic stress, which are detailed herein. Success in the coming cycle will not be a function of passive investment but of a nuanced understanding of this radical economic experiment and the discipline to exit before its inevitable and potentially catastrophic conclusion.
Deconstructing the Trump administration’s economic doctrine
To comprehend the forces poised to shape the 2026 financial landscape, one must first deconstruct the foundational economic philosophy driving the administration’s strategy. This doctrine is not a collection of haphazard policies but a coherent, albeit high-risk, framework rooted in a specific brand of supply-side heterodoxy. It combines a calculated projection of institutional disruption with aggressive protectionism, all aimed at achieving a singular goal: a dramatic revitalization of the U.S. productive economy through a weaker dollar.
The lack of credibility doctrine
A central tenet of the administration’s approach is the intentional cultivation of what may be termed a lack of credibility. This involves a deliberate projection of unpredictability, a disregard for established institutional norms, and public confrontations with established economic bodies like the Federal Reserve. Foundational analysis suggests that this behavior, often misconstrued by markets and media as incompetence or chaos, is in fact a calculated strategy. It is an application of the madman theory to the economic sphere, designed to erode confidence in the U.S. dollar as a stable store of value and thereby engineer its devaluation. By creating an environment of constant uncertainty around U.S. policy, the administration aims to make holding dollars less attractive relative to other currencies, such as the Euro, thereby forcing a depreciation that makes American goods and services more competitive on the global stage.
The architech
The intellectual architect behind this strategy is Stephen Moore, a prominent conservative economist with deep and long-standing ties to Donald Trump. Moore served as a senior economic advisor to Trump’s 2016 campaign, co-authored the book Trumponomics: Inside the America First Plan to Revive our Economy, and is a key contributor to the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a comprehensive plan to radically reform federal agencies, including the U.S. Treasury, under a new conservative administration. His consistent and public philosophy provides the intellectual framework for the administration’s economic gambit.
Moore is a staunch proponent of supply-side economics, advocating for aggressive tax cuts, sweeping deregulation, and a hands-off approach to business to unleash economic growth. Crucially, he has been a vociferous and relentless critic of the Federal Reserve. He has publicly described the institution as a swamp filled with worthless economists who should all be fired and has, in the past, advocated for abolishing the central bank entirely in favor of a return to a gold standard. This well-documented animosity toward the Fed’s independence aligns perfectly with the thesis that a primary objective of the new administration will be to subordinate the central bank to its political will.
The tariff-devaluation
The administration’s economic doctrine fuses two levers:
High tariffs.
Currency devaluation.
The strategy is to erect significant trade barriers while simultaneously weakening the dollar. The current information argues this dual approach is designed to achieve two synergistic outcomes: first, to generate substantial government revenue through tariffs, and second, to make U.S. exports significantly cheaper for foreign buyers whose currencies, like the Euro, are appreciating against the dollar.
This strategy is already in motion. The administration has implemented broad tariffs, with external analysis projecting that the average effective tariff rate could reach its highest level since 1941. These tariffs are expected to be inflationary, a fact acknowledged by both market analysts and the Federal Reserve itself, with companies expected to pass on higher import costs to consumers. While mainstream economists debate the net negative impact of such policies, the administration’s narrative, heavily influenced by Moore’s supply-side thinking, is that this protectionist shield, combined with a competitive currency, will ignite a domestic manufacturing renaissance.
The seemingly chaotic nature of the administration’s policy announcements, the public feuds with the Fed, and the aggressive use of tariffs are not random acts. They are interconnected components of a deliberate, high-risk economic strategy. The lack of credibility is the tool used to achieve dollar devaluation. The tariffs provide a source of revenue and a protectionist buffer. Both are intended to serve the overarching supply-side goal of stimulating domestic production. This transforms the perception of the administration’s economic policy from one of chaos to that of a calculated, radical, and internally consistent experiment aimed at fundamentally reordering the U.S. economy’s relationship with the world.
Unconventional financing and the weaponization of crypto
An expansionary fiscal agenda of the magnitude envisioned by the administration requires a commensurate financing mechanism. With traditional avenues like tax increases being politically untenable, the strategy pivots to unconventional and innovative methods to fund its spending priorities. This section details the two primary mechanisms designed to generate the necessary liquidity: a revolutionary crypto-financing loop enabled by new legislation, and a strategic revaluation of the nation’s gold reserves.
The fiscal package
At the heart of the administration’s agenda is a massive fiscal stimulus package, colloquially referred to as the Big Beautiful Bill. Corroborating analysis confirms the passage of a major legislative package, The One Big Beautiful Bill, which delivers sweeping tax relief, extends key provisions of the 2017 tax cuts, and increases spending. The Congressional Budget Office projects that this legislation will expand the federal debt by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This enormous fiscal outlay, aimed at stimulating corporate investment and consumer spending, necessitates new, large-scale, and reliable sources of financing beyond what the traditional bond market can or will provide on favorable terms.
Check he Big Beatiful Bill here:
Mechanism 1: The GENIUS act and the crypto-financing loop
The cornerstone of the administration’s unconventional financing strategy is the leveraging of the digital asset ecosystem, a plan made possible by the landmark passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act in July 2025. This legislation, far from being a mere regulatory framework, creates a self-reinforcing loop that channels capital from the crypto markets directly into U.S. government debt.
The key provisions of the GENIUS Act are critical to understanding this mechanism. The law mandates that all permitted stablecoin issuers—digital tokens pegged to a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar—must back their outstanding tokens with 1:1 reserves of high-quality, liquid assets. The legislation explicitly designates short-term Treasuries as a primary eligible reserve asset.
This creates a causal loop:
First, by providing regulatory clarity, the GENIUS Act is designed to foster explosive growth in the stablecoin market. The prospect of major technology and commerce companies like Amazon or Meta issuing their own branded stablecoins, as speculated in the foundational analysis, could expand the market by trillions of dollars.
Second, as this market expands, every new dollar that flows into a stablecoin legally requires the issuer to purchase a corresponding dollar’s worth of reserve assets, primarily U.S. Treasury bills.
Check more about GENIUS here:
This dynamic effectively transforms the crypto industry into a captive, price-insensitive buyer of short-term government debt. It creates a new, massive, and structural source of demand for U.S. Treasuries, allowing the Treasury to monetize its deficits via the digital asset industry. The administration’s own fact sheet on the law openly touts this outcome, stating that the GENIUS Act will drive demand for U.S. Treasuries and play a crucial role in ensuring the continued global dominance of the U.S. dollar. This represents a paradigm shift in sovereign debt financing. It moves beyond traditional open-market operations to a system of what can be termed Financial Repression 2.0. The government is not merely influencing interest rates; it is creating a structural, non-market-based demand for its own debt, thereby reducing its sensitivity to traditional investor sentiment and borrowing costs, at least in the short term. This is the critical innovation that enables the massive fiscal expansion of the Big Beautiful Bill without provoking an immediate revolt from the bond market.
Mechanism 2: Revaluation of U.S. gold reserves
A secondary, yet significant, component of the financing strategy involves a strategic accounting maneuver related to the nation’s gold reserves. The foundational analysis describes a plan to revalue the U.S. Treasury’s substantial holdings of over 8,000 tons of gold. Currently, this gold is carried on the government’s books at a statutory value of $42.22 per troy ounce, a relic of historical pricing. The plan is to mark these reserves to their current market value, which has exceeded $3,400 per ounce and is projected to rise further.
This revaluation would, with a simple accounting entry, create over a trillion dollars in new assets on the government’s balance sheet. While this does not generate immediate cash flow, it serves a crucial political and psychological purpose. It allows the administration to project a strengthened balance sheet, providing political cover and an implicit form of collateral for its massive borrowing and spending programs. It is a tool to enhance the perceived credibility of the fiscal expansion, making the surge in debt appear more manageable and well-supported by tangible assets, thereby placating markets and the public while the administration pursues its deeply inflationary policies.
